Opinion | Chris Bryant, Columnist 克里斯·布莱恩特，专栏作家
BYD’s $34,000 SUVs Are Stirring Up German Angst
比亚迪售价 34,000 美元的 SUV 激起了德国人的焦虑
September 15, 2026 at 2:00 PM GMT+8
By Chris Bryant
Chris Bryant is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering industrial companies in Europe.
Previously, he was a reporter for the Financial Times.
克里斯·布莱恩特（Chris Bryant）是彭博社观点专栏作家，报道欧洲工业公司。此前，他是英国《金融时报》的记者。
BYD Co.'s Seal U DM-I plug-in hybrid SUV is a Chinese hit in Germany.
比亚迪公司的 Seal U DM-I 插电式混合动力 SUV 在德国大受欢迎。Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg
摄影师：安德烈·鲁达科夫 / 彭博社
Takeaways
● Job loss announcements are coming from European auto companies, with Volkswagen AG cutting employees and Jaguar Land Rover Automotive Plc axing staff, due to difficulties such as excessive costs and declining demand in China.
由于成本过高和中国需求下降等困难，欧洲汽车公司纷纷宣布裁员，大众汽车公司裁员，捷豹路虎汽车公司裁员。
● Sales by Chinese brands are accelerating fast in Europe, forcing incumbents to flash prices or lose market share, and previous attempts by Brussels to stem these imports haven’t worked.
中国品牌在欧洲的销售正在快速增长，迫使现有品牌大幅降价或失去市场份额，而布鲁塞尔此前阻止这些进口的尝试并未奏效。
● European governments are considering protective legislation, including tariffs on imported Chinese hybrid vehicles, to safeguard strategic industries and limit the advance of Chinese brands in the EU market.
欧洲各国政府正在考虑保护性立法，包括对进口中国混合动力汽车征收关税，以保护战略产业并限制中国品牌在欧盟市场的发展。
These are bleak times for European auto workers. Job loss announcements are coming thick and fast, with Volkswagen AG cutting 100,000 employees and Jaguar Land Rover Automotive Plc axing roughly 10% of its staff. Life is
also tough for suppliers.
对于欧洲汽车工人来说，现在是黯淡的时期。裁员公告层出不穷，大众汽车公司 (Volkswagen AG) 裁员10万名，捷豹路虎汽车公司 (Jaguar Land Rover Automotive Plc) 裁员约10%。供应商的日子也很艰难。
The industry’s difficulties are wide-ranging: excessive costs, uncompetitive products, declining demand in China and Donald Trump’s trade war are all denting profitability. But one can’t ignore the elephant in Europe’s car market: Sales by Chinese brands are accelerating fast, which will force incumbents to flash prices or lose market share.
该行业面临的困难是多方面的：成本过高、产品缺乏竞争力、中国需求下降以及唐纳德·特朗普的贸易战都削弱了盈利能力。但我们不能忽视欧洲汽车市场的一头大象：中国品牌的销量正在快速增长，这将迫使现有品牌大幅降价，否则就会失去市场份额。
Previous attempts by Brussels to stem these imports haven’t worked. Unless Beijing curtails its massive trade imbalances, governments here will have to offer domestic automakers more protection. And they need to get on with it – while this continent still has a car industry to save.
布鲁塞尔此前曾试图阻止这些进口，但并未奏效。除非北京减少大规模的贸易失衡，否则各国政府将不得不为国内汽车制造商提供更多保护。他们需要继续努力——尽管这片大陆仍有汽车工业需要拯救。
China’s Car Sales In Western Europe are Soaring
Chinese brands accounted for more than 10% of registrations in Q2 2026
■ Market share, all fuel types
Bloomberg Opinion
To be clear, I’m no fan of protectionism. In the past I’ve spoken up for consumer choice and the benefits of competition. Chinese vehicles are typically of high quality and provide value for money; advanced features tend to be included in the standard price rather than costly extras. And while tariffs can protect domestic sales, they do nothing to address a lack of overseas competitiveness.
需要明确的是，我不支持保护主义。过去我曾为消费者的选择和竞争的好处大声疾呼。中国汽车通常品质优良且物有所值；高级功能往往包含在标准价格中，而不是昂贵的附加功能。尽管关税可以保护国内销售，但它们无助于解决海外竞争力缺乏的问题。
European automakers are now working harder on reducing costs and launching their own lower-priced electric vehicles. Mercedes-Benz Group Co. is even calling for a longer working week – tantamount to heresy in
labor-friendly Germany.
欧洲汽车制造商现在正在更加努力地降低成本并推出自己的低价电动汽车。梅赛德斯 - 奔驰集团公司甚至呼吁延长每周工作时间——这对于劳工友好的德国来说无异于异端邪说。
Yet I worry these efforts, while necessary, won’t be enough because China’s production costs are so much lower. Workers there earn less, and their employers profit from economies of scale and components being made in-house. The nation’s automotive sector has also benefited from government subsidies and an undervalued currency.
但我担心这些努力虽然必要，但还不够，因为中国的生产成本要低得多。那里的工人收入较低，而他们的雇主则从规模经济和内部制造的零部件中获利。该国的汽车行业也受益于政府补贴和低估的货币。
Weak demand among Chinese consumers has turned the world’s biggest car market into a competitive bloodbath beset by overcapacity. With their domestic sales under pressure, BYD Co., Chery Automobile Co. and others have expanded overseas – BYD’s international revenue now exceeds what it makes at home.
中国消费者的需求疲软，让这个全球最大的汽车市场陷入产能过剩的激烈竞争。在国内销量面临压力的情况下，比亚迪、奇瑞汽车等纷纷向海外扩张，比亚迪的国际收入现已超过其国内收入。
I’m not alone in having a change of heart about the so-called China Shock 2.0: German companies, once fierce free-trade advocates due to their reliance on exports, appear to be edging toward a more critical view of Chinese trade practices. The German government is currently preparing a comprehensive package of measures to safeguard strategic industries, possibly including tariffs on imported Chinese hybrid vehicles, Bloomberg News reported this week. Berlin is working with Paris to build support for a common position within the European Union, ahead of talks with Beijing in
October.
我并不是唯一一个对所谓的“中国冲击 2.0”改变主意的人：曾经因依赖出口而大力倡导自由贸易的德国企业似乎正逐渐对中国的贸易行为持更加批评的态度。据彭博社本周报道，德国政府目前正在准备一揽子全面措施来保护战略产业，其中可能包括对进口中国混合动力汽车征收关税。在十月份与北京举行会谈之前，柏林正在与巴黎合作，为欧盟内部的共同立场争取支持。
Even the VDA German car industry lobby is reviewing its previously accommodating stance. Perhaps that’s because German automakers now have less to lose if China retaliates, as this chart indicates.
就连德国汽车工业协会（VDA）的汽车行业游说团体也在重新审视其之前的宽松立场。也许这是因为，正如该图表所示，如果中国采取报复行动，德国汽车制造商现在的损失将会减少。
Germany Might Now Have Less to Lose by Confronting China
German car and parts imports from China exceed exports for the first time
Bloomberg Opinion
In July, VW boss Oliver Blume called for a “level playing field” vis-à-vis China, highlighting plug-in hybrid imports and “made in Europe” incentives as areas Brussels should focus on. Meanwhile, Italian lobbyists are calling for import quotas, with much higher tariffs imposed on Chinese shipments
above those limits.
7 月，大众汽车老板奥利弗·布鲁姆呼吁对中国建立“公平竞争环境”，强调插电式混合动力进口和“欧洲制造”激励措施是布鲁塞尔应重点关注的领域。与此同时，意大利游说者呼吁实行进口配额，对超过这些限制的中国货物征收更高的关税。
The concern is understandable. 中国品牌正在以惊人的速度扩张。根据施密特汽车研究公司 (Schmidt Automotive Research) 的数据，第二季度它们占西欧汽车销量的10.7%，而两年前同期仅为3.4%。花旗集团分析师 Harald Hendrikse 表示，如果不加以控制，到2035年它们在欧盟的份额可能会达到30%。不过，他认为，保护性立法可能有助于限制它们的进步，并使欧洲大陆的汽车制造商在大资金管理者眼中再次“可投资”。
这种担忧是可以理解的。中国品牌正在以惊人的速度扩张。根据施密特汽车研究公司 (Schmidt Automotive Research) 的数据，第二季度它们占西欧汽车销量的10.7%，而两年前同期仅为3.4%。花旗集团分析师 Harald Hendrikse 表示，如果不加以控制，到 2035 年它们在欧盟的份额可能会达到30%。不过，他认为，保护性立法可能有助于限制它们的进步，并使欧洲大陆的汽车制造商在大资金管理者眼中再次“可投资”。1
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I agree – and for an indication of what might happen otherwise, look at the UK. Lower trade barriers and weak consumer loyalty to European brands have meant one in every six vehicles sold in Britain is now made by a Chinese company.
我同意——要了解否则会发生什么，看看英国。较低的贸易壁垒和消费者对欧洲品牌的忠诚度较低，意味着现在在英国销售的每六辆汽车中就有一辆是由中国公司制造的。2
2
Chinese Autos Are a Hit in the UK, Norway and Southern Europe
But they’re also picking up in Germany and France
Bloomberg Opinion
For now, manufacturers including VW, Stellantis NV and Renault SA that are focused on the cheaper end of the market have the most to lose, along with Japanese and South Korean brands. But I think it’s only a matter of time before premium automakers such as BMW AG and Mercedes get squeezed, too. Xiaomi Corp., whose designs echo those of Porsche AG and Ferrari NV but cost much less, is expected to begin selling in Europe next year, including in Germany.
目前，大众、Stellantis NV 和雷诺 SA 等专注于廉价市场的制造商以及日本和韩国品牌损失最大。但我认为宝马和梅赛德斯等高端汽车制造商迟早也会受到挤压。小米公司的设计与保时捷和法拉利的设计相似，但成本要低得多，预计将于明年开始在欧洲销售，包括德国。
So far, the EU has pursued a comparatively lenient approach towards Chinese car imports, when you consider how the US has effectively barred them via a combination of tariffs and technology regulations. Although
Brussels targeted Chinese EVs in 2024, the maximum additional 35% levy was far less punitive than Washington’s 100%. (Back then, Germany opposed penalizing the Chinese.) And Chinese manufacturers found a workaround: They started shipping a lot more hybrid vehicles, as these are only subject to the bloc’s standard 10% import duty.
到目前为止，欧盟对中国汽车进口采取了相对宽松的态度，考虑到美国如何通过关税和技术监管相结合的方式有效禁止中国汽车进口。尽管布鲁塞尔的目标是在 2024 年对中国电动汽车征收35%的最高额外税，但其惩罚性远低于华盛顿100%的税率。（当时，德国反对惩罚中国人。）中国制造商找到了一个解决办法：他们开始运输更多的混合动力汽车，因为这些汽车只需缴纳欧盟标准的10%进口关税。
Beijing seems to recognize its automakers need to cool things down: It published new guidelines earlier this month urging them to avoid overly aggressive pricing, overseas. But Chinese brands don’t need to offer dumping prices to undercut the local competition.
北京似乎认识到汽车制造商需要冷静下来：本月早些时候发布了新的指导方针，敦促他们避免在海外定价过于激进。但中国品牌不需要提供倾销价格来削弱当地竞争。
BYD’s Seal U DM-i SUV can be purchased for as little as €29,500 ($34,000) once the manufacturer’s discounts and German government sales incentives are included, well below its list price of around €45,000. A VW Tiguan with an equivalent powertrain can cost thousands more. No wonder this BYD model is the top-selling plug-in hybrid across Europe and in Germany.
如果算上制造商的折扣和德国政府的销售激励措施，比亚迪的 Seal U DM-i SUV 的售价可低至29,500欧元（34,000美元），远低于其约45,000欧元的标价。配备同等动力系统的大众 Tiguan 可能要贵数千美元。难怪这款比亚迪车型是欧洲和德国最畅销的插电式混合动力车型。
It feels self-defeating for Berlin to subsidize Chinese imports. But we’ll probably see fewer inconsistencies once European governments adopt a plan known as the “Industrial Accelerator Act.” Although the details are still being finalized, the legislation would require car manufactures to use local assembly and components before benefiting from public procurement,
purchase subsidies and other financial support. Company fleets account for roughly 60% of Europe’s new vehicle sales, so the IAA is potentially quite an effective tool.
柏林补贴中国进口产品感觉是弄巧成拙。但一旦欧洲政府采用一项名为“工业加速器法案”的计划，我们可能会看到更少的不一致。尽管细节仍在敲定中，但该立法将要求汽车制造商在受益于公共采购、购买补贴和其他财政支持之前，必须使用本地组装和零部件。公司车队约占欧洲新车销量的60%，因此 IAA 可能是一个非常有效的工具。
If the upshot is Chinese automakers build more vehicles in Europe, including via joint ventures with local peers, that seems like a decent compromise. BYD and Chery are already setting up factories in Hungary and Spain, respectively.
如果结果是中国汽车制造商在欧洲生产更多汽车，包括通过与当地同行的合资企业，这似乎是一个不错的妥协。比亚迪和奇瑞已分别在匈牙利和西班牙建厂。
Obviously Europe still needs to tread carefully. China has ample scope to retaliate given its dominance in batteries and rare earths. But if Europe allows its industrial capabilities to be hollowed out, it won’t get them back. Even Germany is starting to recognize the status quo isn’t tenable.
显然欧洲仍需谨慎行事。鉴于其在电池和稀土领域的主导地位，中国有足够的报复空间。但如果欧洲允许其工业能力被掏空，它就无法收回这些能力。甚至德国也开始认识到现状是站不住脚的。
More from Bloomberg Opinion:
更多来自彭博社的观点：
Bashing Ford’s China Ties Is Path to Obsolescence: Liam Denning
利亚姆·丹宁：抨击福特与中国的关系将走向过时
Aston Martin Should Lift Hood for Bondholders: Chris Hughes
阿斯顿·马丁应该为债券持有人揭开面纱：克里斯·休斯
65,000 Chinese Defender Lookalikes Test JLR: Chris Bryant
价值65,000美元的中国后卫相似测试 JLR: 克里斯·布莱恩特
Want more from Bloomberg Opinion? OPIN
想了解彭博社观点的更多信息吗? 意见
Schmidt Automotive Research is less pessimistic, forecasting Chinese automakers market share will peak at 14% in 2029 in western Europe, thanks partly to more competitive vehicles from incumbents. View in article
施密特汽车研究公司 (Schmidt Automotive Research) 则没有那么悲观，预测中国汽车制造商在西欧的市场份额将于2029年达到峰值14%，部分原因是现有汽车企业推出更具竞争力的汽车。查看文章
British car buyers are likely more open-minded because there are fewer domestically-owned mass-market car brands and thus fewer “patriotic” purchases. View in article
英国汽车购买者的思想可能更加开放，因为国内大众市场汽车品牌较少，因此“爱国”购买也较少。在文章中查看
Until recently the BYD list price was closer to €40,000. The discounted price is based on a cash purchases including the maximum government subsidy. Germany’s subsidies are targeted at lower-income households. The government offers up to €6,000 for EV purchases and €4,500 for plug-in hybrids, with the amounts depending on the number of children and household income. View in article
直到最近，比亚迪的标价还接近40,000欧元。折扣价格基于现金购买，包括最高政府补贴。德国的补贴针对的是低收入家庭。政府为购买电动汽车提供最高6,000欧元的补贴，为购买插电式混合动力汽车提供最高4,500欧元的补贴，具体金额取决于儿童数量和家庭收入。在文章中查看
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