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为什么美国购房者再次面临7%的抵押贷款利率
Homes in Crockett, California. Source: Bloomberg
加利福尼亚州克罗克特的住宅。来源：彭博社
By Sarah Foster
September 27, 2026 at 8:00 PM GMT+8
0:00 / 4:57
Takeaways
● 30-year fixed mortgage rates in September crossed 7% for the first time since January 2025, a level that threatens to further strain an already weak housing market.
9 月份30 年期固定抵押贷款利率自2025 年1 月以来首次突破7%，这一水平有可能进一步加剧本已疲软的房地产市场的压力。
● Mortgage rates are surging in part because of a selloff in the US Treasury market over fears that a prolonged war with Iran will accelerate inflation and keep the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate high.
抵押贷款利率飙升的部分原因是美国国债市场因担心与伊朗的长期战争将加速通货膨胀并使美联储基准利率保持在高位而遭到抛售。
● Higher mortgage rates are compounding other affordability challenges, with US home prices rising and existing-home sales falling in three of the past six months, slamming the brakes on homebuying activity.
抵押贷款利率上升加剧了其他负担能力挑战，过去六个月中有三个月美国房价上涨，而现有房屋销售下降，给购房活动踩下了刹车。
This was supposed to be the year that sidelined US homebuyers got some relief. Then, the Iran war and fears about rising inflation came along.
今年本应让处于观望状态的美国购房者得到一些缓解。然后，伊朗战争和对通胀上升的担忧随之而来。
After barreling higher for five straight weeks, 30-year fixed mortgage rates in September crossed 7% for the first time since January 2025, a level that threatens to further strain an already weak housing market.
在连续五周上涨后，9 月份30 年期固定抵押贷款利率自2025 年1 月以来首次突破7%，这一水平有可能进一步加剧本已疲软的房地产市场的压力。
Mortgage rates are surging in part because of a selloff in the US Treasury market over fears that a prolonged war with Iran will accelerate inflation and keep the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate high. Since the conflict began at the end of February, mortgage rates have climbed 1.05 percentage points as of Sept.24, following a similar trajectory to longer-dated bond yields.
抵押贷款利率飙升的部分原因是美国国债市场因担心与伊朗的长期战争将加速通货膨胀并使美联储基准利率保持在高位而遭到抛售。自2 月底冲突开始以来，截至9 月24 日，抵押贷款利率已攀升1.05 个百分点，与长期债券收益率的走势类似。
After years of waiting for mortgage rates to come down, homebuyers are now reckoning with the possibility that they could keep going up.
经过多年等待抵押贷款利率下降，购房者现在正在考虑抵押贷款利率可能继续上升的可能性。
Read More: Mortgage Rates at 7% Are Forcing Home Sellers to Slash Prices
阅读更多:7%的抵押贷款利率迫使房屋卖家大幅降价
Homes in Crockett, California. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg
加利福尼亚州克罗克特的住宅。摄影师：大卫·保罗·莫里斯 / 彭博社
Why are mortgage rates so high?
为什么抵押贷款利率这么高？
Mortgage lenders base 30-year fixed mortgage rates on the 10-year Treasury yield. (The yield is the annual return investors can expect from holding a 10-year Treasury at its current price.) Treasuries pay a fixed rate of interest over a set period – in this case, 10 years. The yield is determined by investor demand, and demand rises and falls depending on investors’ expectations of future economic conditions – where interest rates, inflation, government borrowing, and economic growth are headed in the years ahead.
抵押贷款机构根据10 年期国债收益率确定30 年期固定抵押贷款利率。（收益率是指投资者以当前价格持有10 年期国债的预期年回报率。）国债在一定期限内（在本例中为10 年）支付固定利率。收益率由投资者的需求决定，而需求的上升和下降取决于投资者对未来经济状况的预期——未来几年利率、通胀、政府借款和经济增长的走向。
One big factor driving Treasury yields is what investors expect the Fed to do. If they think the central bank will keep short-term rates high for longer, yields on longer-term bonds tend to rise as well. That’s because investors need to be compensated for locking up their money for years when shorter-term investments are offering attractive returns. If a 10-year Treasury doesn’t pay enough, investors are less willing to buy it, pushing its price down and its yield up.
推动美国国债收益率的一大因素是投资者对美联储行动的预期。如果他们认为央行将在较长时间内将短期利率维持在高位，那么长期债券的收益率往往也会上升。这是因为当短期投资提供有吸引力的回报时，投资者需要获得将资金锁定多年的补偿。如果十年期国债支付的费用不够，投资者就不太愿意购买它，从而压低其价格并提高其收益率。
Mortgage Rates Top 7% For First Time Since Early 2025
The weekly average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 7.03% on Sept. 24.
Source: Freddie Mac
Bloomberg
Expecteds for inflation are another factor. Investors demand additional compensation when they fear inflation will erode the value of a bond’s fixed payments.
对通胀的预期是另一个因素。当投资者担心通货膨胀会侵蚀债券固定付款的价值时，他们会要求额外补偿。
Right now, investors are worried about inflation. The war in Iran pushes energy costs higher: US retail diesel prices topped $6.50 a gallon for the first time ever on Sept. 20, while retail gas prices have been holding above $4 on average across the country since mid-July. Those pressures could force the Fed to keep interest rates elevated for longer.
目前，投资者担心通货膨胀。伊朗战争推高了能源成本：9 月20 日，美国柴油零售价格首次突破每加仑 6.50 美元，而自7 月中旬以来，全国平均汽油零售价格一直保持在 4 美元以上。这些压力可能迫使美联储在更长时间内维持高利率。
The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed alongside those concerns. After the Fed raised rates at its September meeting, the 10-year yield topped 5%,rising to levels previously not seen for almost two decades as investors braced for more rate hikes. Since the war began in late February, the 10-year yield has increased about 1.3 percentage points, slightly outpacing the increase in mortgage rates.
随着这些担忧，十年期国债收益率也随之攀升。美联储在9 月会议上加息后，10 年期国债收益率突破5%，升至近二十年来未见的水平，投资者准备迎接更多加息。自2 月底战争爆发以来，10 年期国债收益率已上涨约1.3 个百分点，略高于抵押贷款利率的涨幅。
Read More: Great Bond Shakeout Locks In a 5% World ‘Until Something Breaks’
阅读更多：债券大震荡锁定 5% 的世界 "直到出现问题"
But higher Fed rates don’t automatically mean higher long-term Treasury yields. If higher rates slow the economy significantly, investors may expect inflation to ease and the Fed to eventually cut rates. That can make longer-term Treasuries more attractive, pushing their yields lower.
但美联储利率上升并不自动意味着长期国债收益率上升。如果利率上升导致经济显着放缓，投资者可能预计通胀将会缓解，美联储最终会降息。这可以使长期国债更具吸引力，从而压低其收益率。
Some economists say the Fed’s decision to raise rates in September risks cooling the labor market, which already slowed in June and July before beating forecasts in August.
一些经济学家表示，美联储九月加息的决定可能会导致劳动力市场降温，劳动力市场在六月和七月就已经放缓，然后在八月超出了预期。
Why are mortgages based on the 10-year Treasury yield?
为什么抵押贷款基于10 年期国债收益率？
Mortgage rates reflect the risks of lending money long-term. Lenders base them on the 10-year Treasury to determine how much they need to charge to make a profit because those yields reflect investors’ expectations for inflation, interest rates and economic conditions in the long run.
抵押贷款利率反映了长期贷款的风险。贷方根据10 年期国债来确定需要收取多少费用才能获利，因为这些收益率反映了投资者对长期通胀、利率和经济状况的预期。
Though the US government issues a 30-year bond, the 10-year is the basis for mortgage rates because homeowners tend to pay off or refinance their mortgages after a period that is much closer to 10 years, according to Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors.
美国房地产经纪人协会首席经济学家劳伦斯·云 (Lawrence Yun) 表示，虽然美国政府发行30 年期债券，但10 年期债券是抵押贷款利率的基础，因为房主往往会在更接近10 年的期限后偿还抵押贷款或再融资。
How are rates affecting the housing market?
利率如何影响房地产市场？
Higher mortgage rates are compounding other affordability challenges. US home prices rose 3.7% in August from a year earlier, the fastest year-over-year growth rate of the last 12 months, according to data from Redfin.
较高的抵押贷款利率加剧了其他负担能力的挑战。Redfin 的数据显示，8 月份美国房价同比上涨3.7%，是过去12 个月以来最快的同比增速。
The one-two punch of expensive borrowing costs and elevated housing prices is slamming the brakes on homebuying activity. Existing-home sales have fallen in three of the past six months, data from the National Association of Realtors shows. As of Sept. 13, pending home sales fell 3.5% from a week earlier, to their lowest level in nearly three years, according to Redfin.
昂贵的借贷成本和房价上涨的一两重打击正在给购房活动踩刹车。全国房地产经纪人协会的数据显示，过去六个月中有三个月成屋销售下降。Redfin 的数据显示，截至9 月13 日，待售房屋销售量较一周前下降3.5%，降至近三年来的最低水平。
By some measures, wage growth has outpaced home-price gains this year, but Yun said higher borrowing costs have more than offset that improvement for buyers. “The higher mortgage rate has essentially neutered the positive influence of faster income gains,” he said.
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