0916｜加息日指南-美LC将无视特LP而加息

Markets

Fed Seen Hiking Rates in Defiance of Trump:

Decision-Day Guide

美联储无视特朗普加息：决策日指南

US President Donald Trump, right, and Kevin Warsh, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, during a swearing-in ceremony in the East Room of the White House in Washington on May 22, 2026. Photographer: Yuri Gripas/Abaca/Bloomberg

2026 年 5 月 22 日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（右）和美联储主席凯文·沃什在华盛顿白宫东厅举行宣誓就职仪式。摄影：Yuri Gripas/Abaca/Bloomberg

By Maria Eloisa Capurro 玛丽亚·埃洛伊莎·卡普罗

September 16, 2026 at 7:00 AM GMT+8

• The Federal Reserve is expected to lift interest rates on Wednesday for the first time since 2023 as policymakers.

lose confidence that inflation will cool sufficiently without at least a nudge from the central bank.

预计美联储将于周三自 2023 年以来首次加息，因为政策制定者对通胀将在至少没有央行推动的情况下充分降温失去信心。

• A rate hike could provoke fresh criticism from the White House, with President Donald Trump recently arguing that the US should have the lowest borrowing costs in the world.

加息可能会引发白宫新的批评，唐纳德·特朗普总统最近表示，美国应该拥有世界上最低的借贷成本。

• The Fed will release a post-meeting statement and updated economic forecasts and rate projections on Wednesday, with Chairman Kevin Warsh scheduled to hold a post-meeting press conference 30 minutes later.

美联储将于周三发布会后声明以及最新经济预测和利率预测，主席凯文·沃什计划于 30 分钟后召开会后新闻发布会。

The Federal Reserve is expected to lift interest rates on Wednesday for the first time since 2023 as policymakers lose confidence that inflation will cool sufficiently without at least a nudge from the central bank.

预计美联储将于周三自 2023 年以来首次加息，因为政策制定者对通胀将在至少没有央行推动的情况下充分降温失去信心。

That’s likely to strain Chairman Kevin Warsh’s relationship with President Donald Trump.

这可能会使主席凯文·沃什与唐纳德·特朗普总统的关系变得紧张。

Oficials have held their benchmark rate steady in a range of 3.5%-3.75% since December as a majority of policymakers argued

that progress in lowering inflation was being stalled by temporary factors.

自 12 月以来，官员们一直将基准利率稳定在3.5%-3.75%的范围内，因为大多数政策制定者认为，降低通胀的进展因暂时因素而陷入停滞。

Doubts over that stance have grown steadily this year within the Fed, and a recent hot inflation report appears to have tipped the scales in favor of at least one near-term rate increase. Investors on Tuesday saw a greater than 90% chance of a quarter-point move this week and priced in another hike by the end of the year.

今年，美联储内部对这一立场的怀疑稳步增长，最近的一份热门通胀报告似乎已经倾斜了至少一次近期加息的趋势。周二，投资者认为本周上涨25 个基点的可能性超过90%，并预计年底前将再次加息。

“At some point they have to raise interest rates,” said Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, a professor of economics at Brown University. “And, actually, the more this is kicked down the road, the more inflation is going to be persistent and the bigger a problem it is then.”

布朗大学经济学教授 Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan 表示：“在某个时候，他们必须提高利率。”“事实上，这种情况越严重，通胀就会越持久，问题也就越大。”

The Fed will release a post-meeting statement at 2 p.m. Wednesday in Washington, together with updated economic forecasts and rate projections. Warsh is scheduled to hold a post-meeting press conference 30 minutes later.

美联储将于周三下午2 点在华盛顿发布会后声明，以及最新的经济预测和利率预测。沃什计划在 30 分钟后召开会后新闻发布会。

White House Worries

白宫的担忧

A rate hike could provoke fresh criticism from the White House. As recently as Sunday, Trump repeated his argument that the US should have the lowest borrowing costs in the world.

加息可能会引发白宫新的批评。就在周日，特朗普重申了他的论点，即美国应该拥有世界上最低的借贷成本。

The president has significantly toned down his attacks on the Fed since he appointed Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as chair. He even suggested Warsh was being pressed to raise rates by other Fed officials, whom he accused of being “very political.”

自从任命沃什接替杰罗姆·鲍威尔担任美联储主席以来，总统大大缓和了对美联储的攻击。他甚至暗示沃什是受到其他美联储官员的压力而要求加息，他指责这些官员“非常政治化”。

But Warsh made clear in a late August speech that underlying price pressures hadn’t meaningfully improved, and the Fed had “work to do” if it didn’t receive new assurances that inflation was on a path to the central bank’s 2% target.

但沃什在 8 月下旬的一次讲话中明确表示，潜在的价格压力并没有显着改善，如果美联储没有得到新的保证，证明通胀正在朝着央行2%的目标迈进，那么美联储就“有工作要做”。

Two weeks later, data showed core inflation – which excludes food and energy – rose more than expected in August. Though much of the increase was driven by a record spike in wireless telephone services, many analysts said the Fed couldn’t ignore the report after missing its 2% goal for more than five years.

两周后，数据显示八月份核心通胀（不包括食品和能源）的涨幅超出预期。尽管这一增长在很大程度上是由无线电话服务创纪录的增长推动的，但许多分析师表示，美联储在五年多来未能实现2%的目标后，不能忽视这份报告。

Press Conference 新闻发布会

Warsh’s comments will be closely scrutinized when he takes questions from the reporters. At his post-meeting appearance on July 29, he failed to offer a clear explanation for the Fed’s decision to hold rates and provided little insight into his views on the economy. That prompted a jump in long-term bond yields and a wave of criticism from traders and economists.

当沃什回答记者提问时，他的言论将受到密切关注。在 7 月 29 日的会后露面中，他未能对美联储维持利率的决定做出明确解释，也没有透露他对经济的看法。这引发了长期债券收益率的飙升以及交易员和经济学家的一波批评。

Yet, the chairman’s speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, last month appeared to quell investors’ concerns. A rate hike on Wednesday could further repair any lingering damage.

然而，董事长上个月在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔的讲话似乎平息了投资者的担忧。周三加息可能会进一步修复任何挥之不去的损害。

Reporters are likely to again press the chairman for an explanation of the committee’s decision and push for any hint that one rate increase might mark the beginning of a hiking cycle. While he’s unlikely to offer a clear signal on the future path of rates, Warsh could again frustrate investors if he resists sharing his views on where the economy stands now.

记者可能会再次向主席施压，要求他对委员会的决定做出解释，并寻求任何有关一次加息可能标志着加息周期开始的暗示。虽然沃什不太可能就未来的利率走势提供明确的信号，但如果他拒绝分享他对当前经济状况的看法，他可能会再次令投资者感到沮丧。

Dissents Possible 可能存在异议

Concerns have been mounting within the Fed all year that a series of seemingly temporary factors, including tariffs and the war in

Iran, risked embedding high inflation in the public’s expectations.

美联储内部一年来一直越来越担心，包括关税和伊朗战争在内的一系列看似暂时的因素，有可能将高通胀纳入公众的预期之中。

Three officials dissented at the Fed’s July meeting in favor of higher rates. A hike at this gathering could also be backed by several colleagues who indicated prior to the August inflation report that they required an improvement in price data to continue holding policy steady.

三名官员在美联储 7 月会议上持反对意见，支持加息。这次会议上的加息也可能得到几位同事的支持，他们在八月份通胀报告之前表示，他们需要改善价格数据以继续保持政策稳定。

But a unanimous decision isn’t assured. Governor Christopher Waller has given mixed signals on his read of inflation, and New York Fed chief John Williams said earlier this month there was still evidence that disinflation was on the way. Several economists also predicted Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, who is seen as closely aligned with the White House, might dissent in favor of holding rates.

但并不能保证一致决定。

州长克里斯托弗·沃勒 (Christopher Waller) 对通胀的解读给出了复杂的信号，纽约联储行长约翰·威廉姆斯 (John Williams) 本月早些时候表示，仍有证据表明通货膨胀即将到来。

几位经济学家还预测，被视为与白宫关系密切的监管副主席米歇尔·鲍曼可能会反对维持利率不变。

Policymakers this week will also submit updated economic forecasts and interest-rate projections. Economists in a recent Bloomberg survey expected them to hold their outbooks for unemployment and inflation largely unchanged. Projections for rates should reveal how many officials expect additional rate hikes

this year.

Those projections, however, are unlikely to include a contribution from Warsh, who didn’t participate when officials last submitted projections in June.

然而，这些预测不太可能包括沃什的贡献，当官员们上次在六月份提交预测时，沃什没有参与其中。